A strong El Niño climate pattern could bring much-needed rain and snow to drought-stricken California this winter, according to a new federal forecast out Thursday.
In its most certain forecast to date, the Climate Prediction Center said there's a 95% chance that El Niño will continue through the 2015-16 winter, and it could rival the strongest El Niño ever recorded in 1997.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle defined as warmer-than-average seawater in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which changes weather patterns around the world, from Australia to the Americas to Europe and Africa.
The climate pattern typically brings wet weather to most of the southern United States, from California to the Mid-Atlantic, Becker said. Most of El Nino's impacts occur in the winter months.
California is dire need of rain and snow as the nation's most populous state endures its fourth year of drought. As of Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor, 97% of the state is experiencing drought conditions, forcing water restrictions and fueling wildfires. Nearly half of California is in "exceptional" drought, the worst level, according to the Drought Monitor.
Though El Niños usually mean wet weather for California, the rain isn't guaranteed. “Current El Niño conditions cannot tell us how many storms may cross California this coming winter or how much rain and snow will fall in our state," warned California state climatologist Michael Anderson.
He said this coming winter could extend the record-dry weather or bring major storms, heavy rain and coastal storm surges, or a combination of all.
Sometimes an El Niño can produce too much rain. "There could be a substantially increased risk of precipitation-related hazards this winter in California, including flooding and landslides," said Daniel Swain, a Stanford University climate scientist.
"Strong El Niño events in the past have led to wetter-than-average conditions in the southern part of the state but offered mixed results for California’s main water supply regions in the north," Anderson said, in a statement.
Some good news: El Niño will likely continue to suppress Atlantic hurricanes for the rest of this year, the climate center said. So far, only two hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic.
El Nino's other typical winter impacts, according to the Weather Channel:
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